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Incidence trend and climate influence on dengue fever in Banjarmasin, Indonesia: a path analysis approach


Citation

Ridha, Muhammad Rasyid and Yudhastuti, Ririh and Garjito, Triwibowo Ambar and Hidajat, Muhammad Choirul and Juhairiyah, Juhairiyah and Indriati, Liestiana and Rahayu, Nita and Diyanah, Khuliyah Candraning and Jassey, Babucarr and Yahya, Yudi and Fajriannor, Muhammad and Hidayah, Nurul and Nugraheni, Wahyu Pudji and Rahman, Anita Abdul (2025) Incidence trend and climate influence on dengue fever in Banjarmasin, Indonesia: a path analysis approach. Journal of Health Science and Medical Research, 44 (2). art. no. e20251231. pp. 1-12. ISSN 2586-9981; eISSN: 2630-0559

Abstract

Objective: Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) remains a significant global health burden, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. This study aims to determine climate trends and their influence on dengue incidence in Banjarmasin. Material and Methods: DHF data were collected monthly from the health centers through the Health Office from 2016-2023. Climate data (temperature, humidity and rainfall) were obtained from the Banjarbaru Class II Meteorology and Geophysics Agency. Decomposition approach and path analysis were used in this study. Results: The results show that DHF cases exhibited a strong seasonal pattern, with the peak occurring in the first quarter of each year. The incidence of DHF in Banjarmasin has shown an increasing trend since 2016, with the highest incidence reported in 2023 (88 cases, 12.10 per 100,000 population). Temperature had the most significant direct impact on DHF cases, followed by rainfall and humidity. Humidity and temperature also indirectly affected dengue cases, as demonstrated in the path analysis (direct effect of rainfall: 0.269; indirect effect through temperature:-0.0643). These results underscore the influence of climate on the incidence of dengue fever. Conclusion: Case trends can reveal the seasonal pattern of DHF cases. Mitigation efforts by local health authorities early in the year are essential to reducing morbidity and mortality from dengue fever in Banjarmasin.


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Additional Metadata

Item Type: Article
Subject: Medicine (all)
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine and Health Science
DOI Number: https://doi.org/10.31584/jhsmr.20251231
Publisher: Prince of Songkla University
Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Incidence trend; Indonesia; Path analysis
Depositing User: MS. HADIZAH NORDIN
Date Deposited: 30 Mar 2026 00:46
Last Modified: 30 Mar 2026 00:46
Altmetrics: http://www.altmetric.com/details.php?domain=psasir.upm.edu.my&doi=10.31584/jhsmr.20251231
URI: http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/123808
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