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Lieb, Zoë E. and Meijaard, Erik and Brodie, Jedediah F. and Shabrani, Adi and Mohd-Azlan, Jayasilan and Supriatna, Jatna and Struebig, Matthew John and Deere, Nicolas J. and Spencer, Katie L. and Heon, Suipeng and Wong, Lok Jinn and Juiling, Suzika and Hearn, Andrew and Coudrat, Camille N.Z. and Jati, Agus Sudibyo and Linkie, Matthew and Ngoprasert, Dusit and Das, Dhritiman and Wearn, Oliver R. and Gray, Russell J. and Cabanas, Al John C. and Chankhao, Andaman and Saisamorn, Apinya and Azhar, Badrul and Lee, Benjamin P.Y.H. and Goossens, Benoit and Traeholt, Carl and MacDonald, David W. and Lastica-Ternura, Emilia A. and Garcia-Gil, Fernando and Pattiselanno, Freddy and Fredriksson, Gabriella and Davies, Glyn and Hilser, Harry and Wheelhouse, Jamiee and van der Ploeg, Jan and Redeña-Santos, John Carlo and Moore, Jonathan M. and Parakkasi, Karmila and Berman, Laura Marie and Lee, Samuel Xin Tham and Hughes, Liam J. and Alen, Lukemann Haqeem and Ancrenaz, Marc and Chua, Marcus A.H. and Handschuh, Markus and Ward, Matthew and Rifqi, Mohamad Arif and Bin Jaini, Mohammad Aliyuddin and Bin Omar, Muhammad Syazwan and Pongpattananurak, Nantachai and Shwe, Nay Myo and Daniel, Olivia Z. and Sinovas, Pablo and Deka, Parag and Radinal and Thaung, Ret and Ewers, Robert M. and Legrand, Romain and Sukmasuang, Ronglarp and Kaicheen, Sally Soo and Khalid, Salwa and Aung, Saw Soe and Sheherazade, Sheherazade and Davies, Stuart J. and Braasch, Thiemo and Gray, Thomas N.E. and Redford, Tim and Grafe, Ulmar and Song, Xiaoyang and Luskin, Matthew Scott
(2025)
Mapping multiple wild pig species’ population dynamics in Southeast Asia during the African Swine Fever outbreak (2018–2024).
Conservation Letters, 18 (3).
art. no. e13105.
pp. 1-8.
ISSN 1755-263X
Abstract
The 2018 arrival of African swine fever (ASF) in China was followed by reports of wild pig deaths across most countries in Southeast Asia. However, the magnitude and duration of population-level impacts of ASF on wild pig species remain unclear. To elucidate the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in the region for native pig species, we gathered qualitative information on wild pig population dynamics in Southeast Asia between 2018 and 2024 from 88 expert elicitation questionnaires representing sites in 11 countries. Peak reported population declines occurred in 2021 and 2022, with more than half of respondents reporting declining wild pig populations, far higher than in earlier years. The reported declines waned to 44.23% in 2024, whereas simultaneously, the number of populations reported to be “increasing” increased from 11.3%–13.2% in 2019–2022 to 28.9% in 2024. These reports suggest that the ASF outbreak may have peaked for wild boars and bearded pigs in mainland Southeast Asia, Borneo, and Sumatra, with some subsequent recovery. However, the disease is still expanding into the ranges of island endemic species, such as new reports for the Sulawesi warty pig (Sus celebensis) in September of 2024. Island endemics remain particularly vulnerable to extinction from ASF and require urgent monitoring and conservation action.
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