Development and validation of an oil palm model for a wide range of planting densities and soil textures in Malaysian growing conditions

A semi-mechanistic oil palm growth and yield model called Sawit.jl was developed to account for a wide range of planting densities and soil textures under Malaysia's climate conditions. The model comprises components related to meteorology, photosynthesis, energy balance, soil water content, and crop growth. The model simulates instantaneous meteorological properties using daily weather data, calculates simultaneous evaporation from crop and soil with the Shuttleworth-Wallace model, determines soil water content through Darcy's law, and adapts a biochemical C3 model for photosynthesis. The model is also parameterized using updated measurements from the newer tenera oil palm, including temperature-dependent Rubisco kinetics, specific leaf area, and the partitioning of nutrients and dry matter between various tree parts. Sawit.jl was validated using historical field measurement data from seven Malaysian oil palm sites, encompassing palm ages spanning 1–23 years. These seven sites differed in soil type (Inceptisols and Ultisols), planting density (82–299 palms ha−1), soil texture (27–59 % clay and 7–67 % sand), and rainfall (1800–2800 mm yr−1). The model showed overall good accuracy in simulating oil palm parameters (except for trunk weight) across diverse conditions, with model agreement metrics ranging from 6 to 27 % for model absolute errors, −22 to +17 % for model bias, and 0.38 to 0.98 for the Kling-Gupta Efficiency index. The model also predicted the response of oil palm yield to abrupt rainfall changes, such as those during El Niño and La Niña events, while accounting for how soil texture, rainfall, and other meteorological factors influence water deficits and crop photosynthesis. However, model accuracy varied by site, planting density, and oil palm parameter. Model accuracy can be increased by more accurately representing the oil palm microclimate, incorporating fruiting activity, and refining the dry matter partitioning mechanism for the trunk.

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