Meta-feature-based traffic accident risk prediction: a novel approach to forecasting severity and incidence

This study aims to improve the accuracy of predicting the severity of traffic accidents by developing an innovative traffic accident risk prediction model—StackTrafficRiskPrediction. The model combines multidimensional data analysis including environmental factors, human factors, roadway characteristics, and accident-related meta-features. In the model comparison, the StackTrafficRiskPrediction model achieves an accuracy of 0.9613, 0.9069, and 0.7508 in predicting fatal, serious, and minor accidents, respectively, which significantly outperforms the traditional logistic regression model. In the experimental part, we analyzed the severity of traffic accidents under different age groups of drivers, driving experience, road conditions, light and weather conditions. The results showed that drivers between 31 and 50 years of age with 2 to 5 years of driving experience were more likely to be involved in serious crashes. In addition, it was found that drivers tend to adopt a more cautious driving style in poor road and weather conditions, which increases the margin of safety. In terms of model evaluation, the StackTrafficRiskPrediction model performs best in terms of accuracy, recall, and ROC–AUC values, but performs poorly in predicting small-sample categories. Our study also revealed limitations of the current methodology, such as the sample imbalance problem and the limitations of environmental and human factors in the study. Future research can overcome these limitations by collecting more diverse data, exploring a wider range of influencing factors, and applying more advanced data analysis techniques.

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