UPM Institutional Repository

Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries


Karimi, Asrin and Faroughi, Pouya and Abdul Rahim, Khalid (2015) Modeling and forecasting of international tourism demand in ASEAN countries. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 12 (7). pp. 479-486. ISSN 1546-9239; ESSN: 1554-3641


This study attempts to find the best model to forecast international tourism demand using a series of key macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalized Poisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run international tourism demand. In addition, we find that inflation and real exchange rate have negative relationship with international tourism demand. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and openness of trade have positive relationship with international tourism demand. Cointegration test result shows that there is a long-run relationship between variables.

Download File

[img] Text
Restricted to Repository staff only

Download (228kB)

Additional Metadata

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Faculty of Economics and Management
DOI Number: https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486
Publisher: Science Publications
Keywords: Tourism demand; Economic growth; Macroeconomic indicators; Panel Poisson regression; Modeling
Depositing User: Nabilah Mustapa
Date Deposited: 10 Sep 2019 06:14
Last Modified: 10 Sep 2019 06:14
Altmetrics: http://www.altmetric.com/details.php?domain=psasir.upm.edu.my&doi=10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486
URI: http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/71010
Statistic Details: View Download Statistic

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item