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Climate projections of future extreme events in Malaysia


Citation

Abdul Halim, Syafrina and M. D., Zalina and A., Norzaida (2017) Climate projections of future extreme events in Malaysia. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 14 (3). 392 - 405. ISSN 1546-9239; ESSN: 1554-3641

Abstract / Synopsis

In Malaysia, extreme rainfall events are often linked to a number of environmental disasters such as landslides, monsoonal and flash floods. In response to the negative impacts of such disaster, studies assessing the changes and projections of extreme rainfall are vital in order to gather climate change information for better management of hydrological processes. This study investigates the changes and projections of extreme rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia for the period 2081-2100 based on the RCP 6.0 scenario. In particular, this study adopted the statistical downscaling method which enables high resolution, such as hourly data, to be used for the input. Short duration and high intensity convective rainfall is a normal feature of tropical rainfall especially in the western part of the peninsular. The proposed method, the Advanced Weather Generator model is constructed based on thirty years of hourly rainfall data from forty stations. To account for uncertainties, an ensemble multi-model of five General Circulation Model realizations is chosen to generate projections of extreme rainfall for the period 2081-2100. Results of the study indicate a possible increase in future extreme events for both the hourly and 24 h extreme rainfall with the latter showing a wider spatial distribution of increase.


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Additional Metadata

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Faculty of Science
DOI Number: https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2017.392.405
Publisher: Science Publications
Keywords: Climate change; General circulation model; Advanced weather generator; High temporal resolution; Statistical downscaling
Depositing User: Nida Hidayati Ghazali
Date Deposited: 14 May 2019 10:21
Last Modified: 14 May 2019 10:21
Altmetrics: http://www.altmetric.com/details.php?domain=psasir.upm.edu.my&doi=10.3844/ajassp.2017.392.405
URI: http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/61121
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