UPM Institutional Repository

Financial stability index and business cycle in Malaysia


Koong, Seow Shin and Law, Siong Hook (2012) Financial stability index and business cycle in Malaysia. In: National Research & Innovation Conference for Graduate Students in Social Sciences (GS-NRIC 2012), 7-9 Dec. 2012, Mahkota Hotel, Melaka. (pp. 308-326).


Financial sector plays an important part in a system of economy, in which the intermediation function of financial intermediaries is of particular important in channeling funds. However, it exposes to potential financial risks that might lead to economic crisis. This study develops a financial conditions index and relates its explanatory power on Malaysian business cycle. A wide array of financial indicators is used to construct the index using dynamic factor model. The empirical analyses demonstrate that the constructed index appears to have explanatory power on the business cycle. Testing the forecast rationality, it is found that the business cycle forecast is rational and there is incremental information content at 3-months horizon. Moreover, the changes of the index were found to lead the movement in business cycle. Hence, the constructed index can act as a leading indicator in explaining and forecasting Malaysian business cycle as well as an early warning for policymakers to make appropriate and timely policy actions.

Download File

[img] PDF
Restricted to Repository staff only

Download (240kB)

Additional Metadata

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Divisions: Faculty of Economics and Management
Publisher: Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia
Keywords: Financial stability index; Business cycle; Dynamic factor model; Forecasting
Depositing User: Nabilah Mustapa
Date Deposited: 03 Apr 2017 07:43
Last Modified: 03 Apr 2017 07:43
URI: http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/51256
Statistic Details: View Download Statistic

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item