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Time series modelon hand, foot and mouth disease in Sarawak, Malaysia


Mohammad Sham, Noraishah and Krishnarajah, Isthrinayagy and Shitan, Mahendran and Lye, Munn Sann (2014) Time series modelon hand, foot and mouth disease in Sarawak, Malaysia. Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Disease, 4 (6). pp. 469-472. ISSN 2222-1808


Objective: To model and forecast hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) cases since there has not been any studies on time series modelling of HFMD in Sarawak, Malaysia. Methods: The longitudinal data of HFMD collected over the past 7 years (2006-2012) showed a cyclical pattern of outbreak every 2 to 3 years. The data consisted of weekly number of HFMD reported cases from 2006 to 2012. An auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model was fitted to the data. Batting average was used to measure the performance of our forecast for 2013. Results: The results indicate that ARMA model fit the trends of HFMD in Sarawak very close to the actual data during our study period. Our prediction for the number of HFMD reported cases lies within the 90% interval range for the first 16 weeks in 2013. Conclusions: An ARMA(1,4) model fits the data well and has good prediction ability of over 90% accuracy.

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Additional Metadata

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine and Health Science
Faculty of Science
Institute for Mathematical Research
DOI Number: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2222-1808(14)60608-3
Publisher: Elsevier
Keywords: HFMD; Time series; ARMA model; Sarawak
Depositing User: Nurul Ainie Mokhtar
Date Deposited: 10 Feb 2016 08:49
Last Modified: 26 Nov 2019 07:04
Altmetrics: http://www.altmetric.com/details.php?domain=psasir.upm.edu.my&doi=10.1016/S2222-1808(14)60608-3
URI: http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/35854
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