UPM Institutional Repository

Trend surface analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sarawak


Mohammad Sham, Noraishah and Krishnarajah, Isthrinayagy and Ibrahim, Noor Akma and Lye, Munn Sann (2013) Trend surface analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sarawak. Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 5 (6). pp. 337-341. ISSN 2041-0484; ESSN: 2041-0492


In this study we aim to fit a trend surface model for Hand, Foot And Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Sarawak and also check the adequacy of the model obtained. For this, the epidemiological data of year 2012(outbreak year) and 2011 are used. Models were built up to second order polynomial based on the idea that number of HFMD cases can be described by regression residual analysis. With Moran I statistic, residuals from all the trend surface models were examined for spatial autocorrelation. All six trend surface models for 2011 data had residuals that were not spatially autocorrelated. However, one model for 2012 data showed spatial autocorrelation. The best model for each year of the two years that represent disease outbreak and non-outbreak situations was selected based on Mallows’ Cp statistic. These models could be used to predict the number of cases for locations of interest.

Download File

PDF (Abstract)
Trend surface analysis of hand.pdf

Download (179kB) | Preview

Additional Metadata

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine and Health Science
Faculty of Science
Institute for Mathematical Research
Publisher: Maxwell Scientific Organization
Keywords: HFMD; Sarawak; Spatial auto correlation; Trend surface model
Depositing User: Raja Norazlinda Raja Azenam
Date Deposited: 08 Dec 2014 03:29
Last Modified: 26 Nov 2019 03:20
URI: http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/29823
Statistic Details: View Download Statistic

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item