Sensitivity analysis of ALOHA model for consequence modeling of MTBE air pollution along the Hormozgan coast

Accidental releases from tanker terminals, often resulting from aging infrastructure or substandard equipment, pose significant environmental and public health risks. This study investigates the atmospheric dispersion of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) emissions following such incidents in Hormozgan ports along the Persian Gulf. The ALOHA model was used to simulate the airborne dispersion of evaporated MTBE, while Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis was applied to map hazard zones and concentration gradients. The results identified three levels of pollution intensity, with temperature and wind speed as the most influential factors controlling plume extent and direction, particularly under continuous release scenarios. In contrast, humidity and cloud cover showed limited influence, mainly affecting dispersion pathways rather than concentration levels. Seasonal analysis indicated that hazard potential was highest in February and lowest in August. Prevailing easterly and southeasterly winds were found to transport pollutants toward Bandar Abbas, increasing potential exposure risk. These findings highlight the importance of proactive monitoring and emergency preparedness strategies to reduce environmental and public health impacts associated with airborne MTBE releases.

Text 127856.pdf - Published Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (7MB) Official URL or Download Paper: https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40808-026-02849...

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