A tale of two scenarios: vaccination's impact on Covid-19 trajectories in Jordan

Introduction: The novel coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-Coronavirus-2 (CoV-2) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic and has affected most of the countries around the world. Mathematical epidemic models can be used to predict the course of an epidemic and ensure the significance of vaccination by comparing it to no vaccination. Materials and methods: Extended SIR models were used to show and understand the predicted progression of Covid-19 with and without vaccination strategy. SEIRD model was used to predict Covid-19 cases and deaths in the no vaccination scenario while SEIRDV model was used for the vaccination scenario. Parameters were taken from published articles and reports. Results: SEIR models indicated higher infection and death rates without vaccination. Number of infected cases reached its peak in the first 100 days of 2021, with a gradual declining in the number of infections and becomes plateaued after day 100 which approximately at the end of March. At its peak, the infection could affect up to about 10% of the population leading to 109,671 deaths in the absence of vaccination but with the effect of social distancing and control measurements taken in Jordan in 2020. Number of infected cases with the effect of vaccination and maintaining social distances reached its peak in the first 10 days of 2022. At its peak, the infection could affect up to approximately 15,629 cases leading to 746 death cases which makes the total of deaths 13,399 cases. Conclusion: Vaccination significantly reduced Covid-19 impact, leading to fewer cases and deaths compared to no vaccination.

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