Does climate change respond to government digitization? Empirical evidence from greenhouse gas emissions

Purpose – Against the backdrop of global digitization and accelerating climate change, this study aims to examine how government digitization affects greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, highlighting its environmental tradeoffs under different economic and political conditions. Design/methodology/approach – Using panel data from 130 countries over the period 2002–2021, a fixed-effect model examines the effect of government digitization on GHG emissions. After robustness checks, three fixed-effect models with interaction terms explore the underlying mechanisms. Group tests then investigate the moderating roles of energy security risk, economic policy uncertainty and ruling party ideology. Finally, quantile regression reveals how this effect varies by national emission levels. Findings – Government digitization significantly increases GHG emissions, with benchmark estimation showing a specific magnitude: each 0.1-unit increase in government digitization is associated with an average increase of 0.0023 Mt CO2e in GHG emissions. This emission-enhancing effect operates through rising electric power consumption, improved total factor productivity and promoted business digitization. This effect is further moderated by energy security risk, economic policy uncertainty and ruling party ideology. Quantile regression reveals that this effect is statistically insignificant in low-emission countries, but becomes increasingly associated with higher GHG emissions as national emission levels rise. Originality/value – This study advances the literature by challenging the prevailing belief that government digitization is inherently emission-reducing. It reveals potential emission-enhancing mechanisms and investigates how diverse economic and political factors shape these outcomes, thereby offering a more nuanced understanding and providing theoretical and practical insights for the design of environmentally sustainable digital governance strategies.

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