UPM Institutional Repository

The economics of exchange rates in the East Asian countries


Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi (2002) The economics of exchange rates in the East Asian countries. [Inaugural Lecture]


The recent theoretical and empirical research in international macroeconomics has reestablished the hypothesis of purchasing power parity (PPP) as a long run relationship. This paper highlights some of the difficulties that economist’s had over the past two decades in validating the PPP doctrines. The emphasis is on the exchange rates of the emerging markets of the East Asian economies. This paper argues that with careful application of the nonstationarity time series method, this simple exchange rate and its fundamental variables as techniques that properly capture the dynamic data generating processes of the macroeconomic variables (exchanges rates, current account interest rates, inflation, etc.) are developed. In this paper, the statistical results from the monetary model and its variants are examined to show whether these structural models can replicate the salient features of the exchange rate behavior in the emerging market economics. The focus is on what is predictable and why earlier attempts to model exchange rates failed to produce good forecasts. There is now a growing evidence to suggest that linear models are not always the optimal forecast for the exchange rates.

Download File


Download (18MB)

Additional Metadata

Item Type: Inaugural Lecture
Call Number: LG173 S45S981 no.58
Divisions: Faculty of Economics and Management
Keywords: Exchange rates; Foreign exchange rates; East Asia
Depositing User: Muizzudin Kaspol
Date Deposited: 01 Jun 2009 04:33
Last Modified: 12 Feb 2016 07:31
URI: http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/1101
Statistic Details: View Download Statistic

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item