Modeling Mode Choice Behavior of Motorcyclists in Malaysia
Sheikh Abdul Kadir, Ibrahim (2006) Modeling Mode Choice Behavior of Motorcyclists in Malaysia. PhD thesis, Universiti Putra Malaysia.
In Malaysia, motorcycle use has grown in popularity in the past decades and this has resulted in increased casualties among motorcyclists. However, earlier studies focused primarily on motorcycle safety issues rather than identifying factors that influence motorcycle use and motorcyclists’ mode choice behavior. To overcome these problems, this study focused on the concept of exposure control measures such as an alternative to road transport as a countermeasure aimed at shifting motorcycle users to other safer modes in order to reduce the number of motorcycle road accidents. This study developed a model for motorcyclist mode choice behavior and potential mode shift from the motorcycle to other safer modes. A cross-sectional survey of mode choice among bus, car and motorcycle users in Selangor state, Malaysia was conducted. Selangor state was chosen for the study as it has the highest number of motorcycle crashes in Malaysia. A total of 810 randomly self-administered questionnaires were collected from the household surveys for each mode user over a period of 6 months. Among the data collected were the demographic details, such as income, age, gender, and educational level, trip characteristics, and travel behavior of each mode user. In order to assess the relative importance of demographic, socio-economic and service attributes that influence travelers’ mode choice behavior, discrete choice models were developed in the form of a binomial logit (when there are only two choices), and the multinomial logit (when there are more than two choices) For the motorcycle and bus model, the results suggested that travel time and travel cost are characteristics that determine why motorcycle use is the favored modal choice. The estimated coefficients for travel time and travel cost for the bus mode are negative, implying that an increase in travel time and travel cost for the bus mode is likely to increase the probability of a motorcyclist to continue choosing the motorcycle as the preferred mode of transport. In order to promote greater use of public transport services, the study examined the probability of motorcycle riders shifting to public transport based on a scenario of a reduction in bus travel time and travel cost. The results of the predicted mode share probability show that when the bus and motorcycle are equally fast, 38% would use the motorcycle and 62% the bus The motorcycle and car model examined the influence of future income and car ownership on model shift. The results of the model predict that when the income level of motorcyclists reaches RM 2500 (about US$700) per month, the probability of motorcycle use would drop from 80% to 57%. At the same time, the probability of car commuters would increase from 20% to 41%. According to a World Bank study, if the current rates of economic growth continue uninterrupted, per capita income for Malaysia is expected to reach RM 2000 by the year 2013. According to our 8th Malaysia plan, the per capita income growth target under Vision 2020 is expected to be RM 3166. Therefore, a 29% reduction in motorcycle use is expected to be achieved between years 2013-2020. Similar trends were found for household car ownership. The results showed that ownership of one car in the household would result in a 14% reduction in motorcycle use, while ownership of two cars would result in a 42% reduction in motorcycle use relative to car use. Therefore, the study suggests that improvements in motorcyclists’ income and car ownership would have the greatest impact in influencing the mode preference of motorcyclists, and result in a significant reduction in motorcycle use and a shift towards safer modes of transport.
Repository Staff Only: Edit item detail