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Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis.


Citation

Kilicman, Adem and Mohd Roslan, Ummu Atiqah (2009) Tuberculosis in the Terengganu region: forecast and data analysis. ScienceAsia, 35 (4). pp. 392-395. ISSN 1513-1874

Abstract / Synopsis

In this study we analyse tuberculosis (TB) data from Jabatan Kesihatan Negeri Terengganu (2008) by applying linear trend, quadratic trend, simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing and Holt’s trend corrected exponential smoothing. Accuracy of these time series approaches are measured by computing the variance between the extrapolation model and the actual data. The study shows that Holt’s trend corrected exponential smoothing is the best forecasting model, followed by the quadratic trend model. The results also show that people aged between 35–44 years old,male, Malay, unemployed or have an income lower than RM 1000 per month are in a high risk group to be infected by TB.We also forecast TB cases for 2009 until 2013 and the result suggests that the numbers of TB cases are expected to increase.


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Additional Metadata

Item Type: Article
Subject: Tuberculosis.
Subject: Tuberculosis - Malaysia - Terengganu - Statistics.
Divisions: Faculty of Science
DOI Number: 10.2306/scienceasia1513-1874.2009.35.392
Publisher: Science Society of Thailand
Keywords: Time-series forecasting; Data analysis.
Depositing User: Najwani Amir Sariffudin
Date Deposited: 23 Apr 2012 15:28
Last Modified: 28 Sep 2015 11:25
Altmetrics: http://www.altmetric.com/details.php?domain=psasir.upm.edu.my&doi=10.2306/scienceasia1513-1874.2009.35.392
URI: http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/17488
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